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Subject: UKNM: Future of the Internet Questionnaire Results
From: Phil Gyford
Date: Tue, 7 Dec 1999 19:13:33 GMT

Many thanks to all those from UKNM who responded to my questionnaire
a couple of weeks ago. The results are now available here:

Here's the sumary (from 76 total respondents):

* 83% of respondents expect to be voting electronically in referendums
by 2010, and 35% expect this by 2002. Elections may take a little
longer, but 70% still expect electronic voting in them by 2010 and
22% by 2002.
* Most households will be online in ten years time, with 97% of people
expecting more than half to have connections. Four fifths of
respondents expect the majority of households to have broadband access
by then.
* Wireless hand-held devices look set to be ubiquitous ten years from
now, with 96% of respondents expecting to use them at least once per
week in 2010. PCs won't be disappearing, with 87% expecting to use
desktops or laptops regularly.
* The chances of most currently popular sites surviving ten years at
the top are slim, with only Amazon.com, AOL.com, Microsoft.com and
Yahoo.com given greater than 50% support.

In comparing the views of British and American respondents, I expected
to find differences resulting from the varying states of the Internet
in each country. The US is often regarded as being up to two years ahead
of the UK in its acceptance of the Net and the maturity of the industry.
Differences were rare however, suggesting Britain will catch up with
America over the next decade.

* Expectations of when electronic voting from home will occur are very
similar. The only exception is that a higher percentage of Americans
expect political referendums to allow this by 2002 (43% compared to
31% of Britons).
* Although levels of Internet access are far more advanced in America
right now, respondents expect levels to equalise over the next ten
years with the vast majority of households having access.
* Compared to their British counterparts, few Americans expect to use
set-top boxes or games consoles for Net access in 2010, only 31% and
10% for each method (67% and 64% for Britons).
* When asked to pick websites that will make the top twenty over the
next ten years, the BBC was a popular choice among the British.
* The Americans were slightly more optimistic about the future for
today's websites and traditional non-Net companies.

Thanks again,

philatgyford [dot] com / tel:281-990-9319 / icq:3794783
http://www.gyford.com / http://www.haddock.org

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