RE: UKNM: What if it's all shite? (was .TV)

[Ben Hunt]

Tim, I've had just the same thoughts, but recently I've been looking at

aspects of 'lock-in' in technology, specifically as relating to mobile

networking hardware and software, which in this case might indicate that the

present system may stick around for a little longer.


We all like to pleasure ourselves by lookiong ahead at golden days in the

future, whether it's that there'll actually be a single, unified media

access system (son of DNS) that makes sense and serves us properly, or a

small selection of entirely compatible and interchangeable mobile devices

that can do everything from order a pizza, buy a Big Issue, start the

washing machine or put the cat out.


Classical economics would tell us that the most sensible/efficient/practical

solution to an opportunity will indeed survive and beat off its competitors

to dominate its marketplace. The law of decreasing returns means that no

crap and inefficient competitor can survive - well, look at Darwin, what

chance would you give a  three-legged gazelle in Africa?


A brief look at the real world however tells us that classical economics is

actually talking bollocks. The QWERTY keyboard is crap for typing on, it was

designed to slow down typists so their keys didn't get stuck, but it got dug

in and 'increasing returns' kept it in the market above superior designs

like DVORAK. VHS had no technological competitive advantage over Betamax,

but a slightly bigger initial market share for VHS caused market lock-in and

the eventual extinction of the fitter system. The free market doesn't always

support the best technologies. Someone want to mention Microsoft?


As well as that, the Universe has a built-in pattern of increasing

complexity and diversity. Big bang > stars > planets; the diversification of

species; new services popping up within economies as a result of other

innovations > economies get more and more complex. And that rate gets faster

as the underlying complexity increases. Complexity is the raw material for

complexity, and ideas create new ideas.


Look at the technology industry. Windows 2000 is quite good, but you've

still got lots of other operating systems. In fact, there is still a

significant number of PCs running Windows for Workgroups, Win95 etc. The

evolution of better products doesn't reduce the complexity of the market,

rather it stimulates the evolution of more products. In console gaming, the

launch of the next best machine doesn't kill off the others. There are more

and more mobile phones, PDAs, models of motor car etc. as time goes on. You

just don't find a single, sensible solution getting agreed on that

frequently. How much better off would we all be if we all drove, say,

Hondas, or ran MacOS, or used the same mobile handset and the same palm

computer? The place would run more efficiently, but it just don't work like

that.


So I don't think we'll see "a simpler solution." We may see multiple "better

solutions," but I can't imagine one actually coming to dominate, much as I'd

like to. Techno-panic sets in here. Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaagh


: )B


Ben Hunt

Production Director

Poulternet

ben [dot] huntpoulternet [dot] com

www.poulternet.com

0113 383 4200

direct: 285 6469




-----Original Message-----

From:

tim [dot] haywarddigitaljwt [dot] com

 [

tim [dot] haywarddigitaljwt [dot] com (mailto:tim [dot] haywarddigitaljwt [dot] com)

]

Sent: 20 October 2000 09:14

To:

uknmchinwag [dot] com

Subject: UKNM: What if it's all shite? (was .TV)



I'm unendingly amused by the unbelievable stupidity and greed of URL

speculators

but here's a question.


Is there any fundamental technical reason why the whole mess couldn't be

replaced by another metaphor at a keystroke? Let's say for a moment, that a

browser or iTV company wanted to make the whole process simpler and added

their

own layer of nicknames, hotlinks, whatever? Surely the verbal URL itself is

only

a mnemonic.


I can't help feeling that market forces will push us toward a simpler

solution

over time. Have I missed some simple mathematical or logical reason why this

couldn't eventually happen?


Tim



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

 looking for useful books about the new media biz?

 check out the UKNM books page for some suggestions:

 http://www.chinwag.com/uk-netmarketing/books.shtml

 Email suggestions to:

helpchinwag [dot] com

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

  To unsubscribe or change your list settings go to

http://www.chinwag.com/uk-netmarketing or

helpchinwag [dot] com